AccuWeather Thursday, Aug 26, 5:59 am
A tropical wave sweeping through the Caribbean Sea has a high likelihood of becoming a named system as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico late this week and into the weekend. Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula that were hit by Hurricane Grace may again see impacts from this new tropical threat. However, a more likely scenario AccuWeather forecasters are analyzing opens up the possibility that the system could strengthen into a hurricane and take aim at the western or central Gulf Coast.
"Odds are we're going to have a hurricane some point this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in Wednesday's edition of his Weather Insider podcast.
The feature under scrutiny, designated as Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, remained largely disorganized during the early part of this week as it produced showers and breezy conditions across parts of the Caribbean and northern portions of South America. The feature has since become better organized as it tracked into the western Caribbean.
Tropical development is not expected to occur through at least Thursday due to unfavorable wind shear in the path of the disturbance.
The AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite image captured early Thursday morning, Aug. 26, 2021, shows an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that forecasters are monitoring for tropical development in the coming days.
"Even if it does not strengthen in the short-term, the tropical wave can enhance showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Wind shear is expected to lessen in the northwestern Caribbean late this week, and if the tropical wave does not organize prior to that point, forecasters expect it to have a greater chance for development once it enters this zone.
"The overall environment appears to be quite favorable for development perhaps as early as Friday, but more likely Saturday," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
It is during these days that the brewing tropical threat can deliver a round of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to western Cuba.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) or stronger prior to its closest pass to western Cuba, the risk for damaging winds would be higher.
Regardless of the amount of strengthening, this can produce rainfall heavy enough to lead to flash flooding across western Cuba. The greatest risk for this will be to the west of Havana, including across Isla de la Juventud.
Bands of rain and gust wind can also impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, an area where Grace made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane last week. While impacts from this tropical system are expected to pale in comparison to Grace, ongoing cleanup operations may be hindered.
This tropical wave will be competing with two other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin to become the next named storm of the season. The next names on the list are Ida and Julian.
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Forecasters say that the longer-range path of this potential tropical threat still has plenty of moving parts that need to be ironed out in the days to come.
There is a range of possible ideas on movement and intensity of this system due to the fact that a center at the lowest levels of the atmosphere has not formed yet, according to Kottlowski.
A system that remains on the weaker side will tend to take more of a westerly path, perhaps tracking more toward far northern Mexico or the southern Texas coast. Weaker systems tend to be guided along by the wind in the lowest part of the atmosphere.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the mid-80s in many areas, which is significantly above normal for this time of year.
Ocean temperatures on August 25 (NOAA)
All residents and concerns in western Cuba and across the western and central Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Given the range in possibilities, AccuWeather meteorologists say it's important to check back for the latest updates as more details emerge and the forecast becomes further refined.