No end in sight to COVID, doctors warn

“COVID is here to stay; we know that – and, for sure, we know the pandemic is not over,” says Diagnostic Group pulmonary critical care physician Dr. Qamar Arfeen, who has tackled COVID care in both Beaumont’s major hospitals, as well as Houston-area facilities.

Over the last two years, Arfeen has seen hundreds – if not thousands – of patients seeking remedy from COVID-19 symptoms, both mild and acute, in minor care and emergency rooms. And, although the death toll attributed to contracting the deadly virus has waned over the months since the virus was first detected, Arfeen doesn’t think COVID-19 is going to end any time soon.

“It’s not just any one COVID, really,” Arfeen explained. “It’s the new variants that have come – and those that are coming.”

While Arfeen said that the population has been spared from COVID mutations proven more lethal than the original, there’s nothing to prevent a variation that could rival COVID-19’s initial morbidity.

“Some variants pop up on the radar and disappear,” Arfeen explained, such as the Delta variation that no longer dominates new COVID cases. Omicron, Arfeen said, is currently the predominant variant of new COVID cases, but variants 4 and 5 of the strain have proven less mild.

“The reason we got saved with Delta is many people had immunity from prior infection,” Arfeen detailed. “What we have been living with right now is one variant of COVID after another. We do not know when this is going to stop. There are likely variants on the horizon that can penetrate your immune system and wreak havoc.”

Currently, the COVID varieties infecting Southeast Texans are “looking pretty manageable,”Arfeen said, but the number of COVID cases being confirmed daily is driving up incidents of acute infection even in the milder Omicron variant. “Every day we have new cases in Beaumont.”

Aug. 16, the state of Texas listed 2,987 hospital patients being treated for COVID, the day after three COVID-related deaths were reported. In Beaumont, a COVID-related death was also reported Aug. 16 – that of a 60-year-old man. In 2022 alone, the Texas Department of State Health Services reports that Jefferson County has listed 119 fatalities; the area has reported 860 fatalities total since tracking COVID data began. Orange County has reported 364 COVID-related fatalities; and Hardin County has reported 253 fatalities.

Cities like Beaumont that report daily COVID case numbers have noted larger tallies since the beginning of July. Beaumont’s Public Health Department reported 95 new confirmed cases of COVID coming back from the weekend of Aug. 13. The weekend before saw over 100 new cases.

Despite the city reporting new COVID cases, Beaumont ISD is no longer providing access to the COVID Tracker it once updated daily on the school district website. According to information from the Texas Education Agency regulating all local school districts, “Public schools are no longer required to report positive COVID-19 cases on school campuses. Week ending July 31, 2022 is the last update to (the TEA COVID tracking) dashboard. Historical data for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 schools years are available.”

Texas school districts aren’t the only entities foregoing prior reporting efforts, though, with many cities, counties – and even countries – not providing any current COVID case numbers at all, according to the WHO (World Health Organization).

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarked Aug. 12 that the previous four weeks saw global COVID morbidity expand upwards of 35%.

“The number of sequences shared per week has fallen by 90% since the beginning of this year,” Tedros said, “and the number of countries sharing sequences has dropped by 75%, making it so much harder to understand how the virus might be changing.”

Even in a state of lulled reporting, “Just in the past week, 15,000 people around the world lost their lives to COVID-19,” he said, “completely unacceptable, when we have all the tools to prevent infections and save lives.”

Tedros said that the number of COVID cases, and deaths, could be higher.

Both Tedros and Arfeen are concerned as to what the future of COVID holds, but are also optimistic that there are vaccines and remedies in place to combat the virus.

“The whole world is looking to find a better vaccine, a better treatment,” Arfeen shared, pointing to continuing advances in care for persons contracting COVID. According to Arfeen, many vaccinated when doses first started rolling out may no longer have a continued immunity benefit from full inoculation, even with a booster, and more and more COVID cases are presenting in the roughly 75% of Americans who have been inoculated.

“The immunity from the vaccine does not last very long,” Arfeen explained.  “At six months, most people have sub-optimum immunity from the vaccines.”

Herd immunity, as the population has been continuously exposed to COVID variants for nearly two years, helps some; boosters help others; a declining virus mutation cycle is helping the most. Arfeen warns to not become too dependent on any helpful reprieve continuing in perpetuity, but also recommends following the best practices of what’s worked thus far.

“We may be living with COVID the way we are, and may have to look at getting vaccinated three times a year,” Arfeen posited. “I don’t think we have to change anything, but don’t let your guards down.”

Wear a mask when in clustered settings of people, get all the vaccines and boosters that are recommended by age and medical status, and seek medical treatment if you have COVID symptoms. Go the hospital for severe symptoms.

Arfeen noted that many of the COVID patients he’s treated were asymptomatic, only coming to a COVID diagnosis due to seeking other medical treatment, such as for a heart condition or arriving at the hospital for elective surgery.

“Currently, we have a lot of people that have asymptomatic COVID in our area,” Arfeen detailed. “They don’t even know about it.”

With all the symptomless COVID transmitters traipsing about the community unfettered and unaware, Arfeen is anticipating an even more pronounced COVID boom in the coming months.

“Looking forward, the challenge we are going to have this winter,” Arfeen said. “We have to be prepared so we don’t have any unwanted fatalities. We also have to wonder: Is the health care worker ready for another surge? It’s very challenging.

“When this variant falls off and a new one enters, we hope it isn’t bad. But, who knows?

“Preventing the spread is important but, knowing how it spreads, we have to do whatever we have to do. We can’t let our guards down. But, if we get sick, we have lots of treatment options available.”

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data suggests that COVID-19 affects different people in different ways, with symptoms reported from mild to severe appearing 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. Symptoms may include: fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, sore throat, inability to wake or stay awake, persistent pain or pressure in the chest and confusion.

“We’re all tired of this virus, and tired of the pandemic,” WHO leader Tedros further lamented in his recap of the current COVID crisis. “But, the virus is not tired of us.”

The CDC recommends that COVID-positive patients stay home for at least 5 days and isolate from others, and wear a “high-quality” mask through Day 10.

Based on hospitalization and cases reported to the federal COVID tracker, the CDC lists Jefferson County as a medium community risk level; Orange and Hardin counties are listed as low-level risks.

“We’re in a stronger place today as a nation, with more tools – like vaccination, boosters, and treatments – to protect ourselves, and our communities, from severe illness from COVID-19,” said Dr. Greta Massetti, PhD, MPH, and author of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) series by the CDC. “We also have a better understanding of how to protect people from being exposed to the virus, like wearing high-quality masks, testing and improved ventilation. This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where
COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives.”